Whether we like it or not, America, along with Israel, are in the middle of a serious conflict with Iran. With it being all over the news, some are even wondering if there will be an attack on U.S. soil.

While highly unlikely, the possibility is still there - especially with the vast missile inventory at Malmstrom Airforce Bae.

Is Iran Capable of Sending Missiles to Great Falls/Malmstrom AFB?

Iran's weapon capabilities are pretty well-documented but what about their ability to send a missile to Great Falls?

In a 2022 report from the Modern War Institute West Point, it was believed Iran was pursuing "an arsenal five bombs each with a yield of ten kilotons, comparable to the Little Boy device detonated over Hiroshima" back in 2018.

ALSO READ: Montana Fishermen Get Stranded in Dubai Amidst U.S.-Iran Conflict

According to another report from Metro on February 26, 2026, the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence says Iran has the biggest stockpile of ballistic missiles in the Middle East.

That same report says Iranian officials said their missiles can reach Israel or 1,240 miles.

What Would an Iranian Missile Do to Great Falls?

Now, in case the information above wasn't clear enough: the likelihood of Iran having the ability to send a missile to Great Falls or Malmstrom Air Force Base is extremely low.

If for some reason, they were able to send a 10-kiloton missile to Great Falls, what would it do?

Thanks to a site called Nuclear Secrecy, we're able to simulate what would happen if a 10-kiloton Iranian missile struck our beloved Malmstrom Airforce Base where our stash of missiles is kept and spoiler: it's not good.

What Would It Look Like If Iran Successfully Sent a Nuclear Missile to Great Falls/Malmstrom Airforce Base?

If the missile were to strike Malmstrom AFB, we could already see from afar the distance of the nuclear fallout. In this case with these specific wind speeds, the fallout would head straight for Fort Benton.

According to the data from Nuclear Secrecy, that light orange fall out you see that goes over Fort Benton, would have a maximum downwind fallout distance 38.9 miles, a maximum width of 2.78 miles and affect an area approximately 149 square-miles. The effects of the nuclear fallout would highly depend on what actions those in the affected areas take next.

As we get a closer look at Great Falls/Malmstrom Airforce Base, you can see how much of the eastside of Great Falls would be impacted. That said, there is absolutely no doubt that the entire town would feel the heat, impact, and then some. Let's take a closer look at the blast radius.

Let's break down what each shade of the blast radius means going from the center to the outside according to Nuclear Secrecy.

• Fireball radius: 728 ft (0.06 mi²) 
• Heavy blast damage radius (20 psi): 1,540 ft (0.27 mi²) 
• Moderate blast damage radius (5 psi): 0.61 mi (1.18 mi²) 
• Radiation radius (500 rem): 0.78 mi (1.9 mi²)
• Thermal radiation radius (3rd degree burns): 0.87 mi (2.4 mi²)
• Light blast damage radius (1 psi): 1.58 mi (7.79 mi²) Gray

As we get a closer look, we can see just how destructive a 10-kiloton missile can be for Great Falls. According to Nuclear Secrecy, there would be an estimated 1,500 fatalities, 1,420 estimated injuries as a result.

They also say that "in any given 24-hour period, there are on average 4,717 people in the light (1 psi) blast range of the simulated detonation."

Again, this is just a simulation and not something anyone should take too seriously. That said, if you want to try your own simulations with different scenarios (or sizes of bombs), you can dive down that rabbit hole HERE.